What Is the Probability of You Becoming a Victim of a Violent Crime?
Using AI for some statistical math regarding the probability and frequency of violent crimes globaly.
I’m writing an article for my Master the Mind—Master the World publication, exploring the connection between the content of our minds and the probability of us becoming victims of a violent crime.
It’s an uncomfortable discussion in which we explore what it means to be the master of our own fate and reluctantly examine the possible correlations between our minds and what happens to us in our lives. It’s not about blaming the victims for what happened to them but about trying to understand why things happen to every one of us and how to prevent the worst from happening by being aware of our thoughts.
Here’s the article in question - An Inconvenient Problem With Being God - Victim Blaming.
The following is Chat' GPT’s reasoning based on my inquiries. I post it as complementary data to help readers better understand how we arrived at the numbers in the article. The rest of this article is primarily copy pasted from AI’s responce.
Estimation of violent crimes happening to any one of us
Estimating the probability of something bad (rape, robbery, violence, or murder) happening to any single individual globally involves several steps. We'll need to gather global statistics on the prevalence of these crimes and consider the global population. Here’s a simplified approach to this estimation:
Gather Global Crime Statistics:
Rape: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), approximately 1 in 3 women worldwide have experienced physical or sexual violence in their lifetime.
Robbery: According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), there were about 5.2 million recorded robberies globally in a recent year.
Violence (General): This is harder to quantify precisely due to varying definitions, but we can use assault rates. The WHO estimates about 1.3 million people die each year as a result of violence.
Murder: According to the UNODC, there were around 400,000 homicides globally in a recent year.
Global Population:
The current global population is approximately 8 billion people.
Calculate Probabilities:
For each type of crime, we'll use the global statistics to estimate the annual probability of a person experiencing that crime. Since many of these crimes are underreported, actual rates may be higher, but we'll use reported figures for this estimation.
Calculation
Let's start with the probability of each type of crime:
Rape:
Prevalence: 1 in 3 women (approximately 33%) over a lifetime. To annualize this, we need to consider an average lifespan (e.g., 70 years).
Annual probability: 33%70≈0.47%\frac{33\%}{70} \approx 0.47\%7033%≈0.47%.
Robbery:
Annual recorded incidents: 5.2 million.
Annual probability: 5,200,0008,000,000,000=0.065%\frac{5,200,000}{8,000,000,000} = 0.065\%8,000,000,0005,200,000=0.065%.
Violence (General):
Annual deaths from violence: 1.3 million (this doesn't include non-lethal violence).
This is a severe underestimation for non-lethal violence, but we'll use it as a lower bound.
Annual probability: 1,300,0008,000,000,000=0.016%\frac{1,300,000}{8,000,000,000} = 0.016\%8,000,000,0001,300,000=0.016%.
Murder:
Annual homicides: 400,000.
Annual probability: 400,0008,000,000,000=0.005%\frac{400,000}{8,000,000,000} = 0.005\%8,000,000,000400,000=0.005%.
Combined Probability
The combined probability of experiencing at least one of these crimes in a year, assuming independence, can be estimated using the formula for the union of independent events:
P(any crime)=1−(1−P(rape))×(1−P(robbery))×(1−P(violence))×(1−P(murder))P(\text{any crime}) = 1 - (1 - P(\text{rape})) \times (1 - P(\text{robbery})) \times (1 - P(\text{violence})) \times (1 - P(\text{murder}))P(any crime)=1−(1−P(rape))×(1−P(robbery))×(1−P(violence))×(1−P(murder))
Plugging in the values:
P(any crime)=1−(1−0.0047)×(1−0.00065)×(1−0.00016)×(1−0.00005)P(\text{any crime}) = 1 - (1 - 0.0047) \times (1 - 0.00065) \times (1 - 0.00016) \times (1 - 0.00005)P(any crime)=1−(1−0.0047)×(1−0.00065)×(1−0.00016)×(1−0.00005)
Let's calculate this step by step.
Python Calculation
I'll use Python to perform the calculation for precision. (Chat GPT)
The estimated annual probability of experiencing at least one of the crimes (rape, robbery, violence, or murder) globally is approximately 0.556%, or about 1 in 180.
This is a simplified estimation and does not account for regional variations, underreporting, or other factors that could influence these probabilities.
Time denomination of people being the victims of a violent crime across the globe
We'll use the annual statistics to estimate the frequency of these crimes. We need to break down the yearly incidents into smaller time intervals.
Step-by-Step Calculation:
Annual Incidents:
Rape: We'll use a conservative estimate of 33% of women globally experiencing rape in their lifetime, annualized: approximately 47 incidents per 10,000 people.
Robbery: 5.2 million recorded incidents.
Violence (General): Using 1.3 million violent deaths as a lower bound.
Murder: 400,000 incidents.
Convert Annual Incidents to Per Minute:
There are 525,600 minutes in a year (365 days * 24 hours * 60 minutes).
Calculation
We'll convert the annual figures into per-minute figures.
Rape:
If 33% of women globally experience rape over a lifetime (70 years), this translates to:
Annualized: 0.33×4,000,000,00070≈18,857,142\frac{0.33 \times 4,000,000,000}{70} \approx 18,857,142700.33×4,000,000,000≈18,857,142 incidents annually.
Per minute: 18,857,142525,600≈35.87\frac{18,857,142}{525,600} \approx 35.87525,60018,857,142≈35.87 incidents per minute.
Robbery:
Annual: 5.2 million incidents.
Per minute: 5,200,000525,600≈9.89\frac{5,200,000}{525,600} \approx 9.89525,6005,200,000≈9.89 incidents per minute.
Violence (General):
Annual: 1.3 million incidents.
Per minute: 1,300,000525,600≈2.47\frac{1,300,000}{525,600} \approx 2.47525,6001,300,000≈2.47 incidents per minute.
Murder:
Annual: 400,000 incidents.
Per minute: 400,000525,600≈0.76\frac{400,000}{525,600} \approx 0.76525,600400,000≈0.76 incidents per minute.
Combined Frequency
To find the total frequency per minute, we add up the individual frequencies:
35.87(rape)+9.89(robbery)+2.47(violence)+0.76(murder)≈49 incidents per minute35.87 (\text{rape}) + 9.89 (\text{robbery}) + 2.47 (\text{violence}) + 0.76 (\text{murder}) \approx 49 \text{ incidents per minute}35.87(rape)+9.89(robbery)+2.47(violence)+0.76(murder)≈49 incidents per minute
Final Statement
Based on these calculations:
"Every minute, approximately 49 people globally are raped, robbed, killed, or experience violence."
This estimation uses available statistics and some assumptions; actual rates may vary due to underreporting and regional differences.
Afterword
When we look at the state of the world around us through our screens, we may come under the impression that we are always in immediate danger. This is false. The world is just a very big place, and we are now, for the first time in history, able to see it all at once on small devices in our pockets.
This is not natural, nor is it beneficial. It often evokes thoughts of doom and gloom, instills pessimism about the future, and simply makes us feel bad. We may think that being up-to date with all the horrors happening around the globe is good and beneficial, but that’s an illusion.
All it does is make us feel horrible, and since there is nothing we can do about any of it, it places us in a constant state of stress, fear, rage, sorrow, and anxiety.
I talk about this problem in the following articles (non-AI!):
Meditation on Living in a Remote, Disconnected Village Oblivious to the World at Large
Is it possible to feel happy and peaceful in a world full of turmoil? How can disconnection from the world bring inner peace?
It’s Easy Being an Optimist in Today's World.
I sense you don’t believe me. I wonder why?
In a World of Darkness, Focus on The Light
I know some things are lacking, but what are you thankful for? I'll start with listing 100 items of my own!
STOP! You Don’t Need to Have an Opinion - You Can't Save Everyone
Worried about war and suffering, and want to help? It’s okay to say I don’t know or care. It’s none of my business. It's all perspectives, not truth. Let go, and find peace.
AI Meditations is the result of Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI is instructed to make its writing short, clear, and easy to understand for readers and algorithms alike. We try to interfere with its work as little as possible, but we do play around with styles and experimentation. We use AI for research and experimentation. Sometimes, that leads to some interesting results. We hope you enjoyed it and found it helpful. This is our only publication where AI is used for writing!
My (non-AI) publications:
ZZ Meditation Substack I ZZ Meditations Medium
(non-fiction, about the mind, perspectives, stress, healing, inner peace, general topics, you are here)Trading Meditations Substack
(trading, investing, and Bitcoin, learn from my mistakes)Zediction Substack
(fiction, sci-fi, short stories, horror, fun stuff)Master The Mind - Master the World
(an experimental project, exploring the nature of reality, playing with simulation theory, brainwashing myself into becoming the master of my mind)